MBA sees mortgage volume slipping below $2T in 2027
October 12, 2026
The Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting that mortgage volume will fall below $2 trillion in 2027. The reason is simple: borrowing costs are expected to stay higher for longer. If you are planning a purchase or refinance, that outlook is worth understanding before you make your next move.
The biggest story this week is the MBA's projection that higher-for-longer borrowing costs will keep lending activity subdued into 2027. Trade group forecasts like this one shape how lenders staff up, price loans, and plan their pipelines. The MBA also flagged wider spreads and the possibility of Fed rate hikes, which together point to a market that stays tight rather than loosening. Rates remain elevated, and the forecast suggests they will not return to the levels many buyers were hoping for anytime soon. Daily mortgage-backed securities movement was flat today, so there is no fresh shift to report from the bond market.
Housing affordability is the piece of this story that matters most to everyday borrowers. When volume shrinks, it usually reflects fewer transactions, and that can mean buyers have less competition in some markets while still facing a tough monthly payment math problem. Sellers who expected a quick, high-demand fall may find that listings take longer to move. Local inventory conditions vary a lot, so the national forecast is only a starting point. I would look closely at your own market before assuming the broader trend applies to your neighborhood.
For buyers, the practical takeaway is to focus on what you can control. Get your credit profile, savings, and debt-to-income ratio in good shape, and get preapproved so you can act quickly if the right home comes along. Sellers should price realistically and work with an agent who understands current buyer behavior, since patience from buyers is likely to be the norm. Homeowners with rates well above today's levels should still run the numbers on a refinance, because the right answer depends on the full picture, not on a headline.
The MBA's outlook points to a mortgage market that stays expensive and relatively quiet through 2027. Rates are not expected to drop sharply, so buyers and sellers will need to plan around today's costs rather than waiting for relief. Smart preparation now can make the difference when conditions shift.